For years, California Republicans have been told to sit down, be quiet, and enjoy permanent minority status. Apparently no one gave Steve Hilton that memo.
A new Emerson College poll is turning heads across the Golden State. Surveying 1,000 likely voters between February 13 and 14, Emerson found former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading the crowded gubernatorial primary field with 17 percent. Right behind him are Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14 percent and former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also at 14 percent. For a state Democrats treat like a one party playground, that should set off alarms.
Hilton’s rise is not a fluke. Emerson’s previous poll in December had him trailing, but he has since gained five points and jumped into first place. Among Republican voters, he edges out Bianco 38 percent to 37 percent. Even more interesting, he pulls 22 percent support from independents, more than any other candidate in the field. That matters in a state where independents are increasingly fed up with sky high housing costs, rampant homelessness, and a cost of living that makes middle class families feel like they need a tech IPO just to buy groceries.
Meanwhile, Democrats are doing what Democrats in California often do when power feels guaranteed, they are splintering into factions. Swalwell leads his party’s respondents with 24 percent, followed by Katie Porter at 17 percent and Tom Steyer at 15 percent. Add in Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and a parade of other hopefuls all polling under five percent, and you have a textbook case of vote fragmentation.
Here is where it gets interesting. California uses a so called jungle primary system, meaning all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top two vote getters advance to the general election regardless of party. That system can backfire spectacularly if one party consolidates while the other divides itself into a dozen little camps. If Hilton and Bianco both maintain strong support while Democrats keep slicing their pie into thinner and thinner pieces, you could theoretically see two Republicans advance to November. In California. Let that sink in.
The RealClearPolling average shows Hilton and Bianco tied at 15.5 percent, with Swalwell trailing at 12.5 percent. That is not dominance. That is vulnerability.
Hilton, a British born strategist who worked for former UK Prime Minister David Cameron before relocating to California, has centered his campaign on affordability, housing reform, and breaking what he calls the Democratic monopoly on power. Bianco brings a law and order message rooted in his law enforcement background.
For the first time in a long time, Republicans in California are not just filling space on the ballot. They are leading it. If Democrats do not figure out how to unify their vote, they may discover that even in deep blue California, political gravity still applies.
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