A new Napolitan News Service poll just dropped, and let’s just say it sent a nice jolt through Republican circles. Conducted by Scott Rasmussen with fieldwork from RMG Research, the survey of 2,000 registered voters shows Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot by four points. Considering how loudly the media keeps insisting Democrats are cruising toward 2026, this result was a pleasant little reminder that voters still have functioning memory after the Biden era fiascos.
The poll, taken December 1 to 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, asked the basic question that matters two years out. “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district or the Democrat from your district?” Forty five percent chose the Republican, forty one percent went Democrat. When leaners were added, Republicans sat at forty eight and Democrats at forty four. The margin barely budged, which tells you independents are not exactly rushing to save the left’s sinking ship.
What makes this even better is that the GOP lead is actually widening. Back in September, Republicans held a razor thin 46 45 edge with leaners included. Before that, the only months where Democrats pulled ahead were April and May, with a tie in August. So the trend line is pretty clear. The more voters see of Trump era policies returning, the more they seem to remember that life actually ran smoother.
Now, the enthusiasm numbers were where Democrats grabbed a tiny advantage. They led 50 48 on self reported excitement about voting. Not exactly a blowout, especially for a party that lives and dies by turnout machines. Inside the GOP, the split was fascinating. Voters who prefer Trump style policies held a fiery 43 percent saying they’re Very Enthusiastic. Meanwhile, the traditional Republican crowd sat way down at 22 percent. There’s your message. The energy is with the America First side of the tent, not the donor class that still thinks it’s 2004.
Seniors, as usual, came in hot. Fifty seven percent said they’re Very Enthusiastic, leaving younger voters far behind. Among those 18 to 34 and 35 to 44, enthusiasm barely cracked the high twenties. The poll also found that 64 percent of Very Enthusiastic voters talk politics every day or almost daily. Translation, the people who show up are the people who care.
Now yes, this poll is an outlier compared to the RealClearPolitics average, which currently has Democrats up about five points. But outliers have a habit of becoming trendsetters when the political winds shift. And judging by how things look right now, the breeze is blowing in one direction, and it is not toward the Democrats.
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