Tucker Carlson took a swing this week, and this time the pitch never came. Ahead of President Trump’s Wednesday night address, Carlson predicted the president would announce a war with Venezuela. That announcement did not happen. No missiles, no mobilization, not even a stern warning tucked into the speech. Instead, President Trump talked about domestic priorities, the economy, and the ongoing mess left behind by the Biden administration.
Carlson floated the prediction earlier in the day on the “Judging Freedom” podcast with Andrew Napolitano. He was careful, at least by internet standards, to hedge. “Here’s what I know so far, which is that members of Congress were briefed yesterday that a war is coming and it’ll be announced in the address to the nation tonight at 9 o’clock by the president,” Carlson said. He added, “Who knows, by the way, if that will actually happen. I don’t know, and I never want to overstate what I know, which is pretty limited in general, but a member of Congress told me that this morning.”
That caveat did not stop the clip from racing across social media like it was etched in stone. By the time President Trump stepped up to the microphone, expectations had been inflated well beyond what Carlson himself actually guaranteed. When the speech ended without any mention of Venezuela, the internet pounced.
The context matters. Tensions between Washington and Caracas have been elevated. The Trump administration has ramped up aggressive actions against Venezuelan drug trafficking operations and recently seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. That kind of activity naturally fuels speculation, especially among lawmakers who love to gossip after classified briefings. A contingency plan discussed in a secure room does not mean a decision has been made, but that nuance rarely survives first contact with cable news and podcasts.
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Tucker Carlson says on the Judging Freedom Podcast that a member of Congress told him that President Trump will be announcing tonight that a "War Is Coming."What country do you think it will be?!?! pic.twitter.com/a1CY4OLXh8
— Brandon (@LibOrNormal) December 17, 2025
At least one Democrat appeared relieved when nothing happened. Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona posted on X, “Well at least @potus didn’t announce we are going to war in Venezuela. No clue what was the purpose of the speech.” That comment said more about the political rumor mill than it did about the speech itself.
Carlson’s critics mocked him for getting it wrong. His supporters countered that policy discussions are fluid and that information can change rapidly behind the scenes. Both things can be true at the same time. It is entirely plausible that members of Congress were briefed on a potential escalation that never materialized, or that cooler heads prevailed before airtime.
The White House ignored the speculation altogether, which is usually the tell. If there was ever a serious plan to announce a war during that address, it died quietly, or it was never real to begin with.
This episode is a reminder of the difference between analysis and decision making. Carlson relayed what he was told and admitted his knowledge was limited. The internet treated it like a trailer for a summer blockbuster. President Trump, meanwhile, did what presidents actually do, he talked about the issues he wanted to talk about, not the rumors swirling around beforehand.
No war was announced. Venezuela went unmentioned. And the lesson is painfully obvious. In politics, not every whispered briefing turns into a headline, and not every prediction deserves to be carved into stone tablets before the speech even starts.
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