Jim Hoft used his pre-election appearance on Steve Bannon’s War Room to make a confident call: Republicans will hold the United States Senate, and Mike Rogers will win Michigan’s open seat. Hoft presented the forecast as a strong Election Day outlook for the GOP, while acknowledging that Michigan voters still have the final word. Forecasts are cheap, of course, while actual ballots tend to be rather less cooperative.
When Bannon pressed him for specifics, Hoft pointed to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin before making his sharpest prediction in Michigan. He argued that voters would reject Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed as too radical and said the Senate map looked favorable for Republicans. The Michigan contest has become the sort of race that can determine whether the party keeps control of the chamber.
Hoft also cited visible signs supporting Rogers in a heavily Democratic part of southeastern Michigan. He treated that crossover support as evidence that El-Sayed’s coalition might be weaker than it appears on paper. That is a meaningful argument in a close race, although signs, endorsements, and television forecasts still have to survive contact with the voting booth.
Rogers issued a direct Election Day message as Michigan polls opened, reminding voters that ballots could be cast from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. His appeal was brief and urgent: “Polls are open, Michigan. 7AM-8PM. We have a state to save. 🇺🇸”
The Associated Press describes Michigan as one of the nation’s premier Senate battlegrounds. El-Sayed is running an unapologetically progressive campaign centered on universal health care and trying to prove that approach can win a state President Trump carried in 2024. Rogers, a former congressman and former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is getting another opportunity after losing Michigan’s 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes.
This time, Rogers is seeking the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. The national stakes are substantial. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority, and the Associated Press reported that more than $100 million in advertising entered the Michigan race after the August primary. No Republican has won a Michigan Senate race since 1994, so a Rogers victory would end a three-decade drought and make the Democratic route to Senate control much harder.
The race took another dramatic turn in its final days when Democratic Representative Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost the primary to El-Sayed, crossed party lines and endorsed Rogers. Stevens said El-Sayed had told her she was no longer welcome around his campaign. She responded by backing the Republican nominee and later said El-Sayed was not fit to serve in the Senate.
Stevens stated, “I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today.”
Polls are open, Michigan. 7AM-8PM.
We have a state to save. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/mggf6d2fYn
— Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) November 3, 2026
I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today. pic.twitter.com/pQgfSBuhOJ
— Haley Stevens (@HaleyforMI) November 1, 2026
ABC News carried the Associated Press account of an endorsement that stunned Democratic officials less than 48 hours before Election Day. Stevens appeared with Rogers at a Detroit church service after being removed from a planned event with El-Sayed. Her move exposed divisions left over from a bitter Democratic primary. Stevens had drawn strong support from Black and Jewish voters in metro Detroit, constituencies that could matter in a close statewide contest.
El-Sayed dismissed the endorsement and said he was focused on the cost-of-living concerns voters care about. Michigan Democratic leaders denounced Stevens and insisted the party remained united behind its nominee. That response may sound tidy, but the public rupture gave Hoft a straightforward reason to believe Rogers could close the gap.
Rogers does not need every Democrat to defect. He needs enough crossover votes, combined with strong Republican turnout, to erase the narrow margin that defeated him two years ago. Senate Republicans framed the contest as a national fight to protect their majority, urging voters to participate rather than treating the race like another political sideshow.
“IT’S ELECTION DAY, AMERICA! 🇺🇸 Get out, vote, and protect the Majority. 🗳️”
IT'S ELECTION DAY, AMERICA! 🇺🇸
Get out, vote, and protect the Majority.
🗳️ https://t.co/0ZvvxAUA6w pic.twitter.com/rSGBmjyvth
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) November 3, 2026
Whether Hoft’s prediction survives the Michigan ballot box will be decided by voters, not studio confidence. For now, his call is clear: Republicans hold the Senate, and Mike Rogers defeats El-Sayed in a state Democrats have not surrendered to the GOP in decades.
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