Steve Hilton during the California governor race

Steve Hilton Takes Stage After AP Calls Race at 0%

California’s governor race produced a bizarre television image Tuesday night. At 8:00 p.m. Pacific, the Associated Press called Democrat Xavier Becerra the winner over Republican Steve Hilton, while a public-facing results screen showed 0% reported for both candidates. For viewers, it looked as if the scoreboard had been skipped entirely. That is not exactly the presentation anyone would choose if the goal were to make election reporting feel calm and transparent.

Hilton later took the stage, and the contrast made the moment even more combustible. A winner banner sat above two rows of zeroes, an image practically designed to send the internet into detective mode. Clown World posted the reaction this way:

“This is wild. The AP already called the race for Xavier Becerra over Steve Hilton, but the screen shows 0% reported for both of them. How do you declare a winner when there are no numbers on the board?”

The explanation is less mysterious than the graphic. The 0% figure meant the public results display had not populated yet. It did not mean no ballots had been cast, and it did not mean California election officials had certified a final count. California conducts elections overwhelmingly by mail, and millions of ballots had been submitted before Election Day even though the first public batch was not yet on that screen.

The Associated Press says its decision team can call a race at poll close by reviewing voter-survey data, historical voting patterns, registration figures, advance-vote information and other election research. The test is whether the trailing candidate has any realistic path to overtake the leader. That is a media determination, not an official certification. AP also says it does not call a contest before the final statutory poll-closing time.

California’s election timeline helps explain why public numbers can arrive after the projection. AP’s election guide said roughly 90% of the vote in the 2022 governor’s race was cast early or by mail, with counties generally releasing those ballots in large batches after polls close. The guide said the first 2024 returns appeared 12 minutes after polls closed, while the count did not reach halfway until nearly two hours later. Early mail results also tend to favor Democrats, while Republicans can gain ground as in-person Election Day ballots are counted.

The later results gave AP plenty of support. KQED’s live AP feed showed Becerra leading Hilton by roughly 28 percentage points Wednesday morning, with nearly 60% of the estimated vote counted. Becerra had nearly 5 million votes, or 63.9%, compared with about 2.8 million votes, or 36%, for Hilton. The feed listed the call at exactly 8:00 p.m. Pacific on November 3.

Becerra, a former California attorney general, congressman and Biden administration health secretary, will succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. He will also become the first Latino elected governor in California history. His new administration will inherit a state with a roughly $350 billion annual budget and projected long-term deficits, along with continuing disputes over housing, gasoline prices, homelessness and wildfire risk. He campaigned on affordability and promised aggressive resistance to the Trump administration.

Hilton entered the general election as a political outsider with President Trump’s endorsement. The former Fox News host campaigned on lower costs, cheaper gasoline and public safety. That contrast made the early AP call especially frustrating for viewers who wanted to see actual vote totals before hearing who had won.

An AP projection can be analytically defensible and still make terrible television. The later margin suggests the decision team saw little realistic path for Hilton, but the zero-percent graphic naturally raised questions. Voters do not have to pretend a media projection and an official count are the same thing. They are not. Clear labeling matters, especially when public trust is already strained and the first image looks like a winner was declared before anyone saw the score.

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1 Comment

  • Why in hell would we trust a liberal bastion like the Associated Press that suffers from a terminal case of TDS to call these races?

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